Guesstimate

Pros

  • Free and EA-aligned

  • Graphical, interesting 'multiple flows' display

  • Flexible, some good sensitivity analysis

  • Clearly shows 'dependencies'

  • Leaves out a lot of finance bells & whistles we don't need

  • Connected (?) to some other tech or coding stuff (not sure), Ozzie Goien, Squiggle (?), "Slurp?"

  • Nice documentation here, in a gitbook

Cons

  • Not code-based

  • No way to integrate with data (?)

  • Not as well-maintained or user-friendly as Causal

  • Object (box) labels hard to keep track of

  • No easy 'time series'

LogoGuesstimate | A Spreadsheet for the Uncertainwww.getguesstimate.com

Below, I just added a few boxes in two rows,

  • some stochastic (random draws, normal, etc)

  • some determined (just numbers)

  • some computing a formula as a function of the others

  • then some 'sensitivity analysis' which I don't full understand

Reinstein messing around

And an expanded view of the above:

PreviousCausal/Givewell -- working examples (in progress)NextPedant

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