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Innovations in CoEfAs (e.g., GiveWell)
  • Cost-Effect-Analysis: Quant. uncertainty, transparent, customize
  • Organization and introduction
    • Using this resource
    • Key writings and resources
    • Who is involved?
    • Opportunities to contribute to this project
  • Innovations and issues
    • Limitations of GiveWell
      • (Possible errors and misunderstandings: examples from GW and beyond)
    • Incorporating uncertainty
    • (User-input, sensitivity checks)
    • (Type checking and code)
  • Tools and examples
    • Givewell models in explained maths
    • Squiggle
    • Causal.app
      • Causal/Givewell -- working examples (in progress)
    • Guesstimate
    • Pedant
    • hesim and other R package
    • cole_haus modeling
    • Other examples (MC/Fermi)
  • GiveWell model (and extensions)
    • Code representations of GW models
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  1. Organization and introduction

Who is involved?

PreviousKey writings and resourcesNextOpportunities to contribute to this project

Last updated 3 years ago

Some key players

Sam Nolan (pseudonym: Hazelfire) Sam is an independent researcher creating the language under an EA Infrastructure grant (see recent ).

Taimur Abdaal, from Causal

David Reinstein: My background... Economics academic, UC Berkeley, research/teaching in UK 15 years, now at Rethink Priorities, an empirically-driven think tank associated with EA. Side projects including (funded) 'EA market testing team'.

Also consulting or in discussion:

We are in conversation with James Snowden (GiveWell), who expressed some interest, but he does not see this as a top priority for GiveWell.

Lukas @ Causal Ozzie Gooen (Guesstimate, Squiggle)

Pete Wilderford, co-CEO of Givewell Others at RP and GPI (esp, David Rhys-Bernard?) who have done MonteCarlo CEAs

We could consider more about great ways to illustrate this and build up this skill that a lot of people want to learn. is interested in building this up. Pete Wilderford, CEO at Rethink is also a strong advocate of this approach. And we've had conversations with Taimur Abdal of (and the 'not overthinking' podcast/youtube), who was very interested in facilitating this analysis within his app ... which has seed funding from FTX' Sam Bankman-Fried... so the circle all comes together

cole_haus
Pedant
post
web cv
Michael Hewlitt
Causal.app