Key writings and resources

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Sept-Nov. 2022: GiveWell 'change our mind' contest

Perhaps motivated by critiques, suggestions, and further analysis like those in this gitbook and the writings below... In Sept. 2022 GiveWell announced a 'change our mind' contestarrow-up-right, with $35k in total prize.

A great deal of additional writing and work has been posted in response to this, much of which engages the issues discussed here, including Incorporating uncertainty, transparent and organized data and calculation 'pipelines', and user input of moral and other parameters. We plan to outline this work below (to do).

Tanae Rao's work, focusing on AMF

Squiggle notebook:

E

EA Forum brief on this herearrow-up-right

Froolow's discussion & ex. 'refactoring'

Discussion of the approaches to uncertainty and GiveWell's processes

Excel-based model, multiple charities

See also Froolow's more general discussion/critique of GiveWell's processes herearrow-up-right

Sam Nolan's (Quri) work, focusing on GiveDirectly

First-pass implementation on 'observable'

Cole_haus (earlier) work

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analysesarrow-up-right ... by cole_haus using Python code (full model on Github herearrow-up-right

Adjacent: Pedant/Hazelfire

Further Background and explanations

I think this 'explainer' is a step in the right direction in some ways.

The general case

Douglas Hubbard, strong 'business/layman' arguments for explicitly stating modeling uncertainty and better calibrating one's own beliefs

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