Key writings and resources
Last updated
Last updated
Squiggle notebook:
Discussion of the approaches to uncertainty and GiveWell's processes
I think this 'explainer' is a step in the right direction in some ways.
Douglas Hubbard, strong 'business/layman' arguments for explicitly stating modeling uncertainty and better calibrating one's own beliefs
EA Forum brief on this
See also Froolow's more general discussion/critique of GiveWell's processes
... by cole_haus
using Python code (full model on Github