> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/innovations-in-givewell-esque-ceas/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/innovations-in-givewell-esque-ceas/organization-and-introduction/key-writings-and-resources.md).

# Key writings and resources

{% hint style="info" %}
**Sept-Nov. 2022: GiveWell 'change our mind' contest**

Perhaps motivated by critiques, suggestions, and further analysis like those in this gitbook and the writings below\...\
\
In Sept. 2022 GiveWell announced a ['change our mind' contest](https://blog.givewell.org/2022/09/06/announcing-change-our-mind-contest/), with $35k in total prize.<br>

A great deal of additional writing and work has been posted in response to this, much of which engages the issues discussed here, including [Incorporating uncertainty](/innovations-in-givewell-esque-ceas/innovations-and-issues/incorporating-uncertainty.md), **transparent and organized data and calculation 'pipelines', and user input of moral and other parameters.**\
\
*We plan to outline this work below (to do).*
{% endhint %}

## Tanae Rao's work, focusing on AMF

Squiggle notebook:

{% embed url="<https://observablehq.com/@tanaerao/malaria-nets-analysis>" %}
E
{% endembed %}

EA Forum brief on this [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4Qdjkf8PatGBsBExK/adding-quantified-uncertainty-to-givewell-s-cost)

## Froolow's discussion & ex. 'refactoring'&#x20;

Discussion of the approaches to uncertainty and GiveWell's processes<br>

{% embed url="<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CuuCGzuzwD6cdu9mo/methods-for-improving-uncertainty-analysis-in-ea-cost>" %}

{% embed url="<https://www.dropbox.com/s/6dvl7ihg452hafv/Refactored%20GiveWell%20model%20v9.xlsm?dl=0>" %}
Excel-based model, multiple charities&#x20;
{% endembed %}

See also Froolow's more general discussion/critique of GiveWell's processes [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6dtwkwBrHBGtc3xes/a-critical-review-of-givewell-s-2022-cost-effectiveness)

## Sam Nolan's  (Quri) work, focusing on GiveDirectly

{% embed url="<https://observablehq.com/@hazelfire/givewells-givedirectly-cost-effectiveness-analysis>" %}
First-pass implementation on 'observable'
{% endembed %}

{% embed url="<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ycLhq4Bmep8ssr4wR/quantifying-uncertainty-in-givewell-s-givedirectly-cost>" %}

## Cole\_haus (earlier) work

[Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analyses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gMxTEMvh8RttX9Nt4/uncertainty-and-sensitivity-analyses-of-givewell-s-cost) ... by `cole_haus` using Python code (full model on Github [here](https://github.com/colehaus/givewell-analysis)

{% embed url="<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gMxTEMvh8RttX9Nt4/uncertainty-and-sensitivity-analyses-of-givewell-s-cost>" %}

## Adjacent: Pedant/Hazelfire

{% embed url="<https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xue4yQ5rn6iDsHdmM/pedant-a-type-checker-for-cost-effectiveness-analysis>" %}

## Further Background and explanations

I think this 'explainer' is a step in the right direction in some ways.&#x20;

{% embed url="<https://www.givewell.org/cost-to-save-a-life>" %}

## The general case

{% embed url="<https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1118539273/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=how+to+measure+anything&qid=1641415858&s=books&sprefix=how+to+measu%2Cstripbooks%2C83&sr=1-1>" %}

Douglas Hubbard, strong 'business/layman' arguments for explicitly stating modeling uncertainty and better calibrating one's own beliefs