Key writings and resources
Tanae Rao's work, focusing on AMF
Squiggle notebook:
EA Forum brief on this here
Froolow's discussion & ex. 'refactoring'
Discussion of the approaches to uncertainty and GiveWell's processes
See also Froolow's more general discussion/critique of GiveWell's processes here
Sam Nolan's (Quri) work, focusing on GiveDirectly
Cole_haus (earlier) work
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analyses ... by cole_haus
using Python code (full model on Github here
Adjacent: Pedant/Hazelfire
Further Background and explanations
I think this 'explainer' is a step in the right direction in some ways.
The general case
Douglas Hubbard, strong 'business/layman' arguments for explicitly stating modeling uncertainty and better calibrating one's own beliefs
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